//
you're reading...
Eurozone, Greece

The two scenarios now facing Greece

By Sergio Cesaratto

The victory of ‘no’ opens two scenarios. The most likely is the further effort by the Syriza-led government to reach a new agreement with the Troika, but it is not clear why it should be given something that had not been given before. The financial upheaval of recent days may be such as to induce the Troika to grant Syriza an agreement to save the face of all. But the substance would be the continuation of austerity.

Instead, a decisive choice to leave the euro and the EU would put Greece in a situation that would be unique in Europe, a country that decides to regain their economic and democratic independence. This requires enormous political courage and determination. The country would enter into a kind of war economy, or more precisely in an economy of controls, those that the influential Italian economist Federico Caffè saw as necessary to ensure full employment.

Controlling the movement of capital is the most obvious measure; import controls are its complement. This means that the (scarce) hard currency in the country, is allocated by the state to import the most important  things – medicines, industrial goods and energy etc. – and by blocking imports of superfluous luxury goods. In this framework, the restored monetary sovereignty will enable a revival in domestic demand, while a limited devaluation of the drachma will make the country even more attractive to tourism.  Price controls (and wages) will also be necessary, as will the use resources to relaunch industrial policy. No miracles, for certain, but and end to austerity. Greece would need allies with which to seal international economic agreements, and there are some out there. This will also create enemies, who will try to destabilize it – needless to mention names.

Freeing Greece of European constraints and neo-liberalism would be a momentous lesson for the European left (the Latin American left is well ahead on this front). The European left should accept that between condescension toward Europe (there is only one of them) and political and intellectual recovery, there are options that were in the armoury of economics up to 40 years ago. We should begin discuss them. Let’s not miss this opportunity.

This is a translation/edit of an article published ahead of the referendum on Sunday

Micromega/Il manifesto

About revoltingeurope

Writer on Europe's Left, trade union and social movements @tomgilltweets or @revoltingeurope

Discussion

No comments yet.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Twitter Updates

Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

DATA

Anti-social Europe in numbers

WAGES SLIDE

Key facts and figures on wages across the EU

Wealth Inequality in Europe

Get the key facts and figures

RADICAL VOICES

A different take on European issues

Italy’s Healthcare Crisis

Health services are ‘close to collapse’ in Rome, Turin and Naples after years of cuts and privatisation.

550 days, 29 Workers, Zero Job Losses

How a few determined Italian women stopped their factory closing and protected their livelihoods

Filthy Rich

France's Bernard Arnault of the Louis Vuitton Moet Hennessy (LVMH) empire is worth $41 billion. Check out Europe's rich list

SANTA DRAGHI’S COMING

Private banks receive half-trillion-euro gift from ECB

POPULAR FIGHTBACK

Workers and citizens stand up for themselves

FLORENCE’S BUS LUMACA

Workers are on a go-slow over privatisation

Popular resistance delivers results

Lessons from the victory against Madrid privatisation plan

FRENCH FACTORY OCCUPATION

Hundreds of workers occupied the factory of ArcelorMittal in Florange in the north of France

RSS Fight discrimination in Europe – Amnesty Int’l

  • An error has occurred; the feed is probably down. Try again later.

DOMESTIC VIOLENCE

in Italy the home is a very dangerous place to be

LABOUR RIGHTS

Follow Revolting Europe on WordPress.com

Subjects

EUROPE NEEDS A CITIZENS’ REVOLUTION

Read the statement by Lafontaine and Melenchon

The Troika in Portugal – Three Years On

A success story?

THE EURO

The Dossier

FRANCE

GERMANY

GREECE

ITALY

PORTUGAL

SPAIN